Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.603517 0.699027 0.801504 0.919261 1.050453 1.191736 1.354998
2025-03-09 0.447434 0.569138 0.709250 0.881088 1.084687 1.316726 1.599594
2025-03-16 0.330068 0.461695 0.624226 0.836453 1.102764 1.422265 1.830594
2025-03-23 0.261069 0.401097 0.586130 0.842359 1.181140 1.606525 2.172913
2025-03-30 0.188973 0.322715 0.513168 0.793983 1.185976 1.701407 2.416129
2025-04-06 0.140610 0.267774 0.463019 0.769041 1.218726 1.835738 2.723338
2025-04-13 0.102395 0.219356 0.413756 0.738018 1.239353 1.956163 3.023924
2025-04-20 0.079274 0.190368 0.389392 0.740816 1.309308 2.151857 3.444985
2025-04-27 0.059558 0.161893 0.360332 0.731735 1.360294 2.325145 3.849168
2025-05-04 0.046154 0.141907 0.342344 0.738506 1.437193 2.543970 4.337133
2025-05-11 0.035182 0.123334 0.323044 0.739937 1.505475 2.755409 4.829910
2025-05-18 0.024322 0.100075 0.288480 0.707079 1.511090 2.868003 5.179359
2025-05-25 0.015580 0.077990 0.251165 0.663989 1.497047 2.953980 5.505116
2025-06-01 0.010927 0.065710 0.233340 0.657905 1.550843 3.158929 6.038430
2025-06-08 0.007247 0.053851 0.212661 0.641589 1.583170 3.330150 6.529457
2025-06-15 0.005452 0.048476 0.208390 0.662539 1.692624 3.647130 7.286828
2025-06-22 0.003312 0.038480 0.186249 0.635640 1.700337 3.780828 7.740163
2025-06-29 0.002091 0.031802 0.171932 0.625407 1.742044 3.980661 8.321323
2025-07-06 0.001223 0.025608 0.156228 0.607749 1.764958 4.146412 8.852094
2025-07-13 0.000810 0.022407 0.150641 0.617387 1.850840 4.439870 9.628563
2025-07-20 0.000485 0.018899 0.141833 0.615529 1.909590 4.683890 10.327929
2025-07-27 0.000306 0.016614 0.137436 0.626465 2.000511 4.998917 11.175399
2025-08-03 0.000178 0.014344 0.131726 0.631925 2.078577 5.292807 11.997770